Govt must hope for the best but prepare for the worst, experts sayThe Serena hotel stands in the background as U.S. and Iran hold peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 11, 2026. "But talks on the issues must be closely watched, including US positions on regional forces, troop deployments and war-related compensation," he said. Oil prices have stabilised within a narrower range following the ceasefire, though they have not fallen significantly, he said. Policymakers should be ready for oil prices to rise by as much as 30% and for inflationary pressures to increase. Mr Somjai said a key assumption is the conflict could ease in the second half of the year, with oil prices averaging around US$80–90 per barrel.

Source: Bangkok Post April 12, 2026 00:12 UTC