The Sahara dispute is increasingly viewed as a direct confrontation between Morocco and Algeria, with the Polisario Front serving as an Algerian proxy, according to a new assessment by the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), an influential Moscow‑based foreign‑policy think tank. The think tank notes that since the Polisario broke the 1991 ceasefire in November 2020, armed clashes were of “sporadic low‑intensity” nature, with the separatist militias unable to inflict significant losses on Moroccan forces. The think tank places strong emphasis on Algeria’s role, describing the Polisario as entirely dependent on Algiers for political and economic survival. The Moroccan autonomy plan presented in 2007 remains the main basis for international discussions, the think tank says, outlining broad self‑governance under Moroccan sovereignty. It highlights renewed Franco‑Moroccan ties in 2024–2025, including a letter from President Emmanuel Macron affirming France sees the future of Western Sahara within Morocco’s sovereignty.

Source: The North Africa Journal March 17, 2026 17:00 UTC