The second is that there actually are a lot of voters who would probably vote for Trump if they went out to vote — but they don’t go out to vote. As elections loom, pollsters focus on likely voters because, well, they’re likely to vote. There may be 8 million potential Trump voters in states he could conceivably have flipped in 2016 but who didn’t turn out to vote. There were 4.4 million voters who supported Barack Obama in 2012 who stayed home four years later, a group that is heavily non-White and heavily young. It’s also about 10 million voters smaller than the group that would likely have supported Clinton in 2016.

Source: Washington Post August 28, 2020 21:13 UTC