One of the problems with economic forecasting is that a small change in a few variables can make predictions almost impossibly complex. So how do you make good predictions? The Good Judgment team believes part of the problem is that we misunderstand the science of forecasting and look to the wrong people for predictions. We don’t need subject experts, we need people who are great at forecasting anything. • Adam Shaw is a freelance journalist whose programme on forecasting is on In Business on BBC Radio 4 on 7 September.

Source: The Guardian September 02, 2017 06:00 UTC